Viper only go up in value

[Mikey]

Some Hyundai Elantra isn’t fully street legal now. Vipers can only be worth their weight in cold soon.


https://youtu.be/_45rMWR4bcE

Can you imagine the conniption he’d have if he saw an ACR? The only warning the dealer gave was “be sure to lower the car and add the splitter extension before going to the track!”

The cop sounds like he has a punchable face. I'm so glad I left Cali after the military

[Scott_in_fl]

How far up do we rally before we head back down?

Obviously, it is impossible to tell with any certainty. Nobody can time the markets as evidenced by the fact that the richest people in the world did not make their money timing markets. Even Warren Buffet is an investor, and not a trader.

That said, this market has had a tendency to bounce sharply before resuming its downtrend. My view is that during the quiet days, there is lower liquidity in the index markets and the market is able to float higher, which triggers short stops, which floats it even higher. As they say, never short a dull market.

I've noticed though that there are certain economic calendar events that drive the volumes and thus drive the downside moves. The next is the CPI on October 13. Before then, there's not much that looks capable of moving markets. Thus, this quiet phase could see continued float higher. That sucks in all of the "dumb money" so that they can pull the rug on Oct. 13. IMO, regardless of what the CPI prints, the market will continue its downward move until we get a real flush -- "sell everything" -- event. Only then can the market start a new base to work higher from. And also, a healthy base is not v-shaped. It is u-shaped, and looks like a dead market after all the sellers have tired and all the bulls are scared.

Good luck!

[StrokerAce]

I can always tell when times get tougher as the cheap beer is being purchased vs the more expensive stuff. Same with liquor. lol

[Lawineer]

I can always tell when times get tougher as the cheap beer is being purchased vs the more expensive stuff. Same with liquor. lol

Restaurant liquor sales are down about 25%, and that's here in Texas where we aren't feeling it as bad as most places. Restaurants are a great barometer for middle class health.

[Lawineer]

The cop sounds like he has a punchable face. I'm so glad I left Cali after the military

It should make you want to get a 9L. That'll show him!

[Aevus]

How far up do we rally before we head back down?

not very far, it's already heading down

[Lawineer]

Even dead cats bounce.

[Aevus]

4-7 years till it come back to dec '21 highs

[Mikey]

It should make you want to get a 9L. That'll show him!

Lmao

[Mikey]

I won't be surprised if we have a positive quarter before heading back down. There was an "unknown" buyer purchasing a bunch of bonds. That and the bears are covering their short positions

[finalleaf]

on another note, high yield savings have pretty good rates now to park rainy day funds in, or your ammunition before the next bull run. I think Marcus is up to 2.15% now.

[Scott_in_fl]

4-7 years till it come back to dec '21 highs

Remember that today, more than ever before, so many people rely on market investments to provide income they need to survive on. Think of the aging population, the pension funds, the government bonds, etc., etc. If you ever thought that some of the banks were "too big to fail", then imagine how that applies today to the US equity markets!!! So, as Dave Portnoy once remarked "the stock market can never go down", the notion is sort of true. You can buy every dip and know that you only have to ride it out and hold long enough for that decision to have proven correct.

So while we will get the ebbs and flows, the retracements and pullbacks, the technical 20% bear markets every so often, they will never last long because too much of the world is now reliant upon it. The dips are opportunities to keep buying more, and should be treated as such as long as you and I are around. When everything is going up again, just save dollars and be ready for the next opportunity.

And when investors cannot any longer drive prices higher, then the Fed will turn on the printing press and come in with the next QE Infinity program to do it for them. The beast continues to need to eat, and the Fed will make sure that it does.

on another note, high yield savings have pretty good rates now to park rainy day funds in, or your ammunition before the next bull run. I think Marcus is up to 2.15% now.

Excellent point. Take advantage of the higher rates while you can!

[Aevus]

So, as Dave Portnoy once remarked "the stock market can never go down", the notion is sort of true. You can buy every dip and know that you only have to ride it out and hold long enough for that decision to have proven correct.

I completely agree with that... But only if the avg. P/E is around 14 (the past 100 years avg).

When I see 70, 100 or even 500 P/E as the ''new normal'', that's where the red flags comes up in my head.

When your P/E is above 50 for 10 years, maybe you should start to ask yourself some questions: is it a good business? How many years a ''start-up'' should remain in growth stage?

Tesla, by example, is massively overrated to my eyes.
Amazon, maybe the high P/E is worth it.
Beyond Meat, the high P/E was a massive red flag and now the stock is a joke.

Bottomline, when a bubble arise, when the stockmarket becomes a gigantic casino, that's when people are blinding themselves about the real business behind the stock price.

The Gamestop stock was a good (surrealistic) example of that. People couldnt care less of the Gamestop company, it was just a speculative token at some point. Which is absolutely crazy when you think about it.

It's a very good time to (re) watch The Big Short movie... People are driven by only two emotions: Greed and Fear.

[Lawineer]

I completely agree with that... But only if the avg. P/E is around 14 (the past 100 years avg).

When I see 70, 100 or even 500 P/E as the ''new normal'', that's where the red flags comes up in my head.

When your P/E is above 50 for 10 years, maybe you should start to ask yourself some questions: is it a good business? How many years a ''start-up'' should remain in growth stage?

Tesla, by example, is massively overrated to my eyes.
Amazon, maybe the high P/E is worth it.
Beyond Meat, the high P/E was a massive red flag and now the stock is a joke.

Bottomline, when a bubble arise, when the stockmarket becomes a gigantic casino, that's when people are blinding themselves about the real business behind the stock price.

The Gamestop stock was a good (surrealistic) example of that. People couldnt care less of the Gamestop company, it was just a speculative token at some point. Which is absolutely crazy when you think about it.

It's a very good time to (re) watch The Big Short movie... People are driven by only two emotions: Greed and Fear.

Pretty much every stock that doesn't (and wont) issue dividends is nothing different. BTC, Gamestonk or whatever stock that has effectively vowed to never issue a dividend. What's the difference?
What is the value of a company that never issues a dividend. If I gave you all the Amazon stock in the world, but you were not allowed to collect a dividend of any sort, what would it be worth? Absent any clever manipulations (make yourself an employee with a high salary, etc), it would be a liability if your time has any value.

A stock is, in theory, worth the net present value of all its future distributions. No distributions, no value. Beauty contest, greater fool, whatever.

[Mikey]

100% bid rate yesterday, never happened during a bear market. Will be interesting

[Mikey]

Looks like I'll be getting a job again
Pulled the trigger with my margin too early

[Aevus]

Pretty much every stock that doesn't (and wont) issue dividends is nothing different. BTC, Gamestonk or whatever stock that has effectively vowed to never issue a dividend. What's the difference?
What is the value of a company that never issues a dividend. If I gave you all the Amazon stock in the world, but you were not allowed to collect a dividend of any sort, what would it be worth? Absent any clever manipulations (make yourself an employee with a high salary, etc), it would be a liability if your time has any value.

A stock is, in theory, worth the net present value of all its future distributions. No distributions, no value. Beauty contest, greater fool, whatever.

Undistributed dividends that are reinvested... Absolutely no problem with that. Look at Amazon. Great long-term investment IMO.

But NO EARNING? Just losses after losses? Take a look at RIVN (Rivian Automotive) the new EV kid on the block... That thing is downright scary. But nevertheless, when the stock was launched a year ago, it skyrocketed to 179$.... now it's down to 34$ and frankly I wouldnt invest a dime even at 10 bucks a pop

[Lawineer]

Undistributed dividends that are reinvested... Absolutely no problem with that. Look at Amazon. Great long-term investment IMO.

But NO EARNING? Just losses after losses? Take a look at RIVN (Rivian Automotive) the new EV kid on the block... That thing is downright scary. But nevertheless, when the stock was launched a year ago, it skyrocketed to 179$.... now it's down to 34$ and frankly I wouldnt invest a dime even at 10 bucks a pop

But what’s the point if all it ever does is reinvest in itself and never pays a dividend?

[Aevus]

But what’s the point if all it ever does is reinvest in itself and never pays a dividend?

remember APPL, they had so much pressure from investors they finally gave up with a dividend

also, profitable companies can rebuy stocks which mechanically raise the value of remaining stocks.

The only problem is just distorted P/E, really

[Scott_in_fl]

So, back to car talk (as the market gyrates with the latest Oct CPI report -- a bull trap, imo).

I've been following the latest GT3RS release and watching YouTube videos, etc., and it struck me how all of those GT2RS owners must be feeling right about now. Remember that most of them paid $400k+ for what they thought was the most extreme looking 911 ever, a literal cup car looking machine for the road. But then Porsche decides to make the next gen and they go bonkers on the styling of the new 3RS. If anyone thought the 2RS looked bad ass, well it looks absolutely pedestrian next to the new 3RS. And it got me to recalling this thread and why our Gen 5 Vipers are so unique and valuable for the long haul.

I've discussed this analysis before, but the new 3RS just makes the point. If looks are the main driver for the latest "want" of well-heeled buyers (which it is for most of them), then that can never last long because typically the next gen looks so much better (especially if we're talking Pcar, Fcar, lambo, etc.). It's akin to purchasing a car because the infotainment tech just seems so great at the time -- until the next gen makes it all feel old, slow, and antiquated.

Yes, the new gen car is likely a bit faster, maybe drives a smidge better, might have better featurs inside, etc., but the car is really just a much better looking version of the prior gen. Long term value prospects are low in those cases because supply vs. demand will continuously (if slowly) roll over from one side of the equation to the other.

But now take the Gen 5 Viper. Even though it looks great, that's not why people want them. Like the '05-'06 FGT, it's also not necessarily the looks or even the performance that drives the "want" -- rather, it's the "je ne sais quoi" of the car. The sound, the feel, the character, etc. Thus, even if Stellantis came out with a new body style (unlikely), there are so many aspects of the car that can never be reproduced. The extremely low production volume is the icing on the cake.

So yes, Viper values only go up if for no other reason than that the supply vs. demand equation will always be so one-sided (and increasingly so over time). And, given current and expected inflation realities, today is still a better day to purchase one than tomorrow.

As for the new GT3RS, I'd love to have one, but it would absolutely have to be a very short-term stay in the garage.

[Aevus]

So, back to car talk (as the market gyrates with the latest Oct CPI report -- a bull trap, imo).

I've been following the latest GT3RS release and watching YouTube videos, etc., and it struck me how all of those GT2RS owners must be feeling right about now. Remember that most of them paid $400k+ for what they thought was the most extreme looking 911 ever, a literal cup car looking machine for the road. But then Porsche decides to make the next gen and they go bonkers on the styling of the new 3RS. If anyone thought the 2RS looked bad ass, well it looks absolutely pedestrian next to the new 3RS. And it got me to recalling this thread and why our Gen 5 Vipers are so unique and valuable for the long haul.

I've discussed this analysis before, but the new 3RS just makes the point. If looks are the main driver for the latest "want" of well-heeled buyers (which it is for most of them), then that can never last long because typically the next gen looks so much better (especially if we're talking Pcar, Fcar, lambo, etc.). It's akin to purchasing a car because the infotainment tech just seems so great at the time -- until the next gen makes it all feel old, slow, and antiquated.

Yes, the new gen car is likely a bit faster, maybe drives a smidge better, might have better featurs inside, etc., but the car is really just a much better looking version of the prior gen. Long term value prospects are low in those cases because supply vs. demand will continuously (if slowly) roll over from one side of the equation to the other.

But now take the Gen 5 Viper. Even though it looks great, that's not why people want them. Like the '05-'06 FGT, it's also not necessarily the looks or even the performance that drives the "want" -- rather, it's the "je ne sais quoi" of the car. The sound, the feel, the character, etc. Thus, even if Stellantis came out with a new body style (unlikely), there are so many aspects of the car that can never be reproduced. The extremely low production volume is the icing on the cake.

So yes, Viper values only go up if for no other reason than that the supply vs. demand equation will always be so one-sided (and increasingly so over time). And, given current and expected inflation realities, today is still a better day to purchase one than tomorrow.

As for the new GT3RS, I'd love to have one, but it would absolutely have to be a very short-term stay in the garage.

Scott, it makes sense but let me play the devil's advocate a little bit...

In 10 or 30 years from now... Which between the 992 GT3RS or the GEN 5 ACR will reach the 1M mark first?

I wouldnt bet against the Porsche.

[Mikey]

Scott, it makes sense but let me play the devil's advocate a little bit...

In 10 or 30 years from now... Which between the 992 GT3RS or the GEN 5 ACR will reach the 1M mark first?

I wouldnt bet against the Porsche.

It wasn't until maybe 5 years ago, maybe less, that the Ford gt started commanding 200k+. I wouldn't be surprised that it'll take another 10 years to see massive appreciation of the Gen 5s

[Lawineer]

remember APPL, they had so much pressure from investors they finally gave up with a dividend

also, profitable companies can rebuy stocks which mechanically raise the value of remaining stocks.

The only problem is just distorted P/E, really

That changes the question though, haha. It does eventually pay a dividend.

Also, I just bought a good chunk of T-notes. Nearly 4.5% on a 4 month lockup and virtually zero risk is hard to argue with in these times. I had a lot of my cash on the sidelines, and broke it up into 4 monthly buys (1 each month for the next 4) of T-notes, keeping the rest in MMA around 2.5% IIRC. I have a feeling the next 6 months are going to be wild.

[Mikey]

Shenanigans is going on in the background of the market
Wouldn't be surprised if we see a holiday rally then right back down in 2023

[Gen5snake]

Shenanigans is going on in the background of the market
Wouldn't be surprised if we see a holiday rally then right back down in 2023

Elections may give the market a quick hit...depending on which way it goes. And I do think you're right.