In the forseeable future: 5 years to get your car off the road or scrap it

[EZ 2B Green]

Not stated by some "odd ball" but by Bob Lutz!

http://www.autonews.com/article/2017...-times-goodbye

[99RT10]

LOL, after both the Google car and Uber I think had accidents, those will be a hard sell. Wait for more to cause accidents and kill more then the driver. 5 years and hopefully we will have faster better cars.

[ACRucrazy]

Not five year from now. He’s just saying a 5 year window in the future.

I dunno, i could see it happening. Maybe not in 15 years, not in 30. But maybe before i’m in the dirt.

[capevettes]

It will not happen that soon. Driving is one of the greatest pleasures in my life. It is the freedom to jump in a car and go wherever you want and enjoy the experience of driving a fine automobile. I know alot of people don't share that enthusiasm. Autonomous cars are perfect for those who aren't interested in driving. Alot of them are very poor or distracted drivers. Let them have the autonomous cars. That will leave the rest of us, who care about driving, more freedom to drive without interference.

[Purple Haze]

And we were supposed to have flying cars in the last century...I see his point but it won't happen that fast...This will be great for the older generation who doesn't or can't drive...Mainstream it'll take a while. IMO.

[Murpowa]

It will not happen that soon. Driving is one of the greatest pleasures in my life. It is the freedom to jump in a car and go wherever you want and enjoy the experience of driving a fine automobile. I know alot of people don't share that enthusiasm. Autonomous cars are perfect for those who aren't interested in driving. Alot of them are very poor or distracted drivers. Let them have the autonomous cars. That will leave the rest of us, who care about driving, more freedom to drive without interference.

I agree full heartedly, driving is a freedom and a pleasure. I honestly don't care for this AI movement nor do I see it ever coming to fruition unless EVERYONE is mandated (read: forced) to buy one at the same time. I just don't see AI's being able to share the road with human's. Computers interacting with computers and humans interacting with humans is far more predictable than computers vs humans. I am an avid motorcycle rider and would be scared to death sharing the road with a driver-less car

[GuitarSteve2112]

It's sad to think the car and art of driving has gone to hell.



Read this little story....
https://www.scribd.com/doc/33762958/...-Morning-Drive

From there, I'd suggest listening to "Red Barchetta" By my local friends "RUSH."

-GS

[BrianACR]

There is a great 30+ page article about this in Car and Driver. I think it was the October issue.

[SlateEd]

I was going to post this as well Mike - https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/07/form...eid=8bd320374c

Guys - this is not a joke, and not something we can take lightly. There is a huge swell of interest in self-driven cars and ENORMOUS amounts of money being bet on making them work. Lobbyists are beating the drum about safety. Car companies are beating the drum about 'consumer choice'. Advertisers are having wet dreams about the infotainment systems and being able to buy/sell ad space inside self driving cars because the driver won't be responsible for driving. Tech companies like Google see the auto industry as the fatted calf they might now have access to.... There are a lot of factors working in the direction of exactly what Lutz suggested here, and they're all bad for enthusiasts, whether they love Vipers or Porsches, Vettes, Mustangs, even GT-Rs.

One of the sad parts is that it's all smoke and mirrors in support of self-driving cars, yet many mainstream people are loving the idea.
Each of us has a vested interest in being an ambassador for human-driven cars RIGHT NOW to try to combat the hype.

I'll post an entire litany of arguments against AVs later, but for now consider just one thing that you can share with others...

When was the last time you can remember a full week without your cell phone or computer 'doing something weird'? Freezing up, crashing, unexpected quirky behavior? Can you remember 7 full days without any of that? I can't. So why would anyone assume that computers put into cars will be flawless? They can't possibly be. If most accidents are caused by human error now, most accidents involving self-driving cars will be caused by computer glitch later, but we will have lost our soul and spent trillions on infrastructure to 'discover' that.

[512BB]

I was going to post this as well Mike - https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/07/form...eid=8bd320374c

Guys - this is not a joke, and not something we can take lightly. There is a huge swell of interest in self-driven cars and ENORMOUS amounts of money being bet on making them work. Lobbyists are beating the drum about safety. Car companies are beating the drum about 'consumer choice'. Advertisers are having wet dreams about the infotainment systems and being able to buy/sell ad space inside self driving cars because the driver won't be responsible for driving. Tech companies like Google see the auto industry as the fatted calf they might now have access to.... There are a lot of factors working in the direction of exactly what Lutz suggested here, and they're all bad for enthusiasts, whether they love Vipers or Porsches, Vettes, Mustangs, even GT-Rs.

One of the sad parts is that it's all smoke and mirrors in support of self-driving cars, yet many mainstream people are loving the idea.
Each of us has a vested interest in being an ambassador for human-driven cars RIGHT NOW to try to combat the hype.

I'll post an entire litany of arguments against AVs later, but for now consider just one thing that you can share with others...

When was the last time you can remember a full week without your cell phone or computer 'doing something weird'? Freezing up, crashing, unexpected quirky behavior? Can you remember 7 full days without any of that? I can't. So why would anyone assume that computers put into cars will be flawless? They can't possibly be. If most accidents are caused by human error now, most accidents involving self-driving cars will be caused by computer glitch later, but we will have lost our soul and spent trillions on infrastructure to 'discover' that.

I am an old school guy, my cars/bike must include "Gasoline, Pistons and Manual Transmission". I am going to go to my grave with the cars and bike that I have as I don't like the new generation of cars, whether electric, hybrid, blah blah. BUT I do believe that in the near future self driving cars will be the norm. They are already in many cities around the country and as much as I want to agree with you regarding your argument, to me the single most important equation or tipping point is when self driving/autonomous cars become safer than those operated by humans. From what I see, we have passed that point and at the moment the ancillary issues are the ones that are being worked out, e.g., insurance goes with the car and not the driver, legalities regarding traffic and pedestrian right-of-way, etc.

[SlateEd]

I am an old school guy, my cars/bike must include "Gasoline, Pistons and Manual Transmission". I am going to go to my grave with the cars and bike that I have as I don't like the new generation of cars, whether electric, hybrid, blah blah. BUT I do believe that in the near future self driving cars will be the norm. They are already in many cities around the country and as much as I want to agree with you regarding your argument, to me the single most important equation or tipping point is when self driving/autonomous cars become safer than those operated by humans. From what I see, we have passed that point and at the moment the ancillary issues are the ones that are being worked out, e.g., insurance goes with the car and not the driver, legalities regarding traffic and pedestrian right-of-way, etc.

The fact is at the moment there is nothing to prove they are safer, and anyone who tells you they are has just been drinking the Elon Musk Kool-Aid. The kind of testing being done is in a test-tube. (closed course, limited neighborhoods, etc.) When you take that AV out on the road for the first time in a new place where its machine-learning is having a virgin experience, there's no reason to believe your are safer than with a human driver.

Consider for a second the fact that human drivers are safely arriving at their destinations the VAST majority of the time. When collisions happen, it's the result of an extremely rare mistake under the right (or wrong) circumstances... When the computer guidance systems have a 'rare' glitch or software error, collisions are still going to happen. There is no reasonable way to argue that a "perfect" computer can be installed in cars when there hasn't been one yet in any other consumer product... software just doesn't work that way.

Semi-Autonomous safety features are helping... the brakes the jump in when you are in stop-and-go traffic, the lane departure assist, etc. With those you have 2 brains at the wheel at the same time. Telling the human to go play around on Facebook for a half hour because the computer can handle it is just not going to provide the expected result.

And so Bob Lutz is right - there will be a tipping point. but he's right for the wrong reason...
AVs can not provide the safety they claim in unfamiliar situations with lots of variables. The only way they create a safe-driving utopia (dystopia) is by being networked to one another... and that's the point when the discussion will turn to outlawing human drivers. Don't let it get to that point. It's that simple. NOW is the time to say something, not 20 years from now when the R+D and infrastructure investments are too high for politicians to ignore.

If you want safer, more efficient, more sustainable, more predictable transportation in the future, go back to pushing public transportation and mass-transit options. AVs have the potential to erase decades worth of progress on that front. If you want to dedicate Trillions of Dollars to something that matters, there are plenty of really serious issues to tackle. Creating another 30 minutes worth of Facebook time during people's commute is not one of them.



...

[99RT10]

The fact is at the moment there is nothing to prove they are safer, and anyone who tells you they are has just been drinking the Elon Musk Kool-Aid.
...

I would say they are VERY unsafe:

http://www.foxnews.com/auto/2017/11/...er-launch.html

LOL

[EZ 2B Green]

I would say they are VERY unsafe:

http://www.foxnews.com/auto/2017/11/...er-launch.html

LOL

For those bringing their Vipers to NVE3 please note above!

[SlateEd]

I would say they are VERY unsafe:

http://www.foxnews.com/auto/2017/11/...er-launch.html

LOL

Haha - I love that!
But the problem remains, we have a culture that worships inventors... even the ones who invent problems so that their tech-toys have something to 'solve'
people want to believe in the power of tech inventions and they thing sitting in traffic is boring, and they think riding in a computer car would be cool.... we are on the front lines of this whether we want to be or not. Share that link with EVERYONE who will listen and everyone who won't.

[Voice of Reason]

Ive been saying driving will be outlawed in 30 years and people have laughted. “Ha! How could computers possibly evolve to be fast enough to drive!” It’s interesting to see that someone who should be in the know says it’s closer to 15-20. I read another article somewhere that said robots with an IQ of 10,000 will exist in 30 years. Some days it feels like the average driver IQ around me is in the 80s, I’m pretty sure these mega genius robots will be able to drive me around when I’m 70+ years old just fine.

And I get the resistance, this is what we love. But that’s why we don’t see it. We have blinders on. Most people do not like driving. It’s not like we have a 2nd amendment that’s going to keep this “right” around longer than it should, public safety will overrule our desire to have fun. Guaranteed.

[ViperTony]

Self-Driving cars have a long way to go. One thing it can never overcome is the programming needed to make moral decisions i.e. deciding who to kill in an accident situation. For instance, if a person falls onto the road in front of a fast-moving self driving car, and the car can either swerve into a traffic barrier, or off a bridge, potentially killing the passenger, or go straight, potentially killing the pedestrian, what should it do? When the roads are flooded with self-driven cars this scenario becomes even more problematic.

[EZ 2B Green]

It may go something like this...

http://autoweek.com/article/car-news...n=awdailydrive

[J TNT]

Interesting articles Mike , in Europe they're pushing hard for electrification . The take rate in North America is currently 2 % and growing . I don't see myself in a digital car but the times they are a changing .

[Voice of Reason]

Self-Driving cars have a long way to go. One thing it can never overcome is the programming needed to make moral decisions i.e. deciding who to kill in an accident situation. For instance, if a person falls onto the road in front of a fast-moving self driving car, and the car can either swerve into a traffic barrier, or off a bridge, potentially killing the passenger, or go straight, potentially killing the pedestrian, what should it do? When the roads are flooded with self-driven cars this scenario becomes even more problematic.

You have WAY too much faith in the general population to be able to make a split second decision like this. 70% of the population right now will white knuckle, close their eyes, and drive right over that person.

And no one is saying self driving cars belong everywhere on the road today. But 30 years is a ridiculous amount of time in technological advancement terms. Cars will be completely ready for this in 20, it will take another 10 for the public to catch up to the idea that people driving is over.

I actually predict self driving cars will be mainstream before we go all electric cars. Our infrastructure will be slow to adapt to electric car needs, gas stations are too readily available, gas is a cheap reliable resource, there are powerful lobbies against electric, etc. But self driving cars are a computing power and sensor problem, something easily solved by advancing technology. So don’t worry your travel pod will still need you, someone has to put gas in it.

[AZTVR]

I find it funny to read posts that sound similar to the things people said about having automobiles on the street with out a horse being controlled by a human pulling them. Then the talk of the ridiculousness of thinking that a human could control the direction of a horseless carriage at speeds over 10 mph.

When I drive out there on the freeway, I am amazed at how it is possible that the morons driving those vehicles get home safely. Not for a minute do I believe that an autonomous car couldn't do a better job in the near future. Don't underestimate the incompetence of the average American driver.

[SlateEd]

I find it funny to read posts that sound similar to the things people said about having automobiles on the street with out a horse being controlled by a human pulling them. Then the talk of the ridiculousness of thinking that a human could control the direction of a horseless carriage at speeds over 10 mph.

When I drive out there on the freeway, I am amazed at how it is possible that the morons driving those vehicles get home safely. Not for a minute do I believe that an autonomous car couldn't do a better job in the near future. Don't underestimate the incompetence of the average American driver.

It's not a question of underestimating the incompetence of average drivers... they're terrible, and I drive daily in the NY Metro area where density is high, amplifying the problem. We still have no proof that computers can be made 'perfect' but that assumption is built into every argument in favor of AVs

But bad drivers can be fixed with education, tougher licensing requirements, and mechanically-enhanced human driven cars. Not perfect either, but much, much better. If we spent 1 Trillion dollars on those elements, we could make the rate of road fatalities among human drivers negligible. it's going to take tens of Trillions at least to make self-driving cars realistic, AND it will steal the soul of driving, which is a big deal.

-I've heard this argument about "that's what people said when horses were phased out" but it misses the mark by a LOT-
From horses to horseless carriages you maintained the core activity -- individual freedom through action. You care for a horse, you care for a car. You ride a horse, you drive a car. The romance of a living breathing animal creating more mobility for you than your own two feet is maintained with horseless carriages because you are still involved.

Self Driving cars do NOT present a similar horizon... not even close.
you don't care for the AV, you let it take itself to the service station.
you don't drive the AV, you ride along.
you don't even need to pay attention to the outside world (in the eventual version).
It's like riding the bus... So people who dislike driving that much, or suck at it that badly, should ride the f$%King bus.

When horseless carriages came on the scene, people worried that they couldn't be controlled by humans... clearly we've proven that to be incorrect, but we're not done yet. Learn to drive well, or take public transit. That's the (boring, realistic, not sexy, no patents needed, save our soul, one tenth of the cost) solution.

[Coloviper]

Tech will continue to grow but then again Mother Nature changes continuously. Sorry but you can not program for everything nor can you program the morale decision making to mimic a full Human.

Autonomous driving will grow and be useful in certain parts of the country and situations but will simply never replace the human experience and responsibility of driving. People that believe otherwise simply have never configured a program before.

This all of nothing approach will be its downfall. People try to compare the horseless carriage scenario but it is totally different. A Human was controlling both, not a machine. I get it, tech is cool. I have been an electrical engineer in automation for 22 years now. Sorry but this is a bunch of shit as far as a massive change to AI taking over driving. Aids in safety like braking. Will grow and are good but the totally autonomous car, like “Johnny Cab”. It is many, many years off if ever. There simply is not enough bandwidth in communications to make it all work mainstream. Well just make more wireless spectrum then right. That type is statement would wrap up how clueless some of these AV people are.

As far as replacing the older vehicles on the road, I think Lutz needed to retire because he is loosing it with those BS statements.

On the funny side is so everything goes electric and cleans up the greenhouse gases completely and the planet reverses and cools greatly returning the glaciers and polar bears. Has anyone ever tried to make electronics work great when they are extremely cold? No buying the major mainstream of electric and AV vehicles. If “computers were so smart with 10,000IQ ( I read that article too), then why do we still have no cure to cancer or worse yet, we can’t even count votes at election time. Nope, not buying into the mainstream AV outside of a controlled circuit like a mine site, which I also work on. Don’t believe everything you read in the news folks.

[SlateEd]

Tech will continue to grow but then again Mother Nature changes continuously. Sorry but you can not program for everything nor can you program the morale decision making to mimic a full Human.

Autonomous driving will grow and be useful in certain parts of the country and situations but will simply never replace the human experience and responsibility of driving. People that believe otherwise simply have never configured a program before.

This all of nothing approach will be its downfall. People try to compare the horseless carriage scenario but it is totally different. A Human was controlling both, not a machine. I get it, tech is cool. I have been an electrical engineer in automation for 22 years now. Sorry but this is a bunch of shit as far as a massive change to AI taking over driving. Aids in safety like braking. Will grow and are good but the totally autonomous car, like “Johnny Cab”. It is many, many years off if ever. There simply is not enough bandwidth in communications to make it all work mainstream. Well just make more wireless spectrum then right. That type is statement would wrap up how clueless some of these AV people are.

As far as replacing the older vehicles on the road, I think Lutz needed to retire because he is loosing it with those BS statements.

On the funny side is so everything goes electric and cleans up the greenhouse gases completely and the planet reverses and cools greatly returning the glaciers and polar bears. Has anyone ever tried to make electronics work great when they are extremely cold? No buying the major mainstream of electric and AV vehicles. If “computers were so smart with 10,000IQ ( I read that article too), then why do we still have no cure to cancer or worse yet, we can’t even count votes at election time. Nope, not buying into the mainstream AV outside of a controlled circuit like a mine site, which I also work on. Don’t believe everything you read in the news folks.

I totally agree with your perspective on how feasible the AVs are (or aren't). There are so many tech problems that are being minimized in the discussion by tech-optimists. Some of those issues are totally irreconcilable even over the long term.

BUT it is still a threat to our hobby and our passion for Viper (or other fun cars) and we can't ignore it. The generation that is just being born now might never get to drive our Vipers; that's the frightening truth. Bob Lutz is not losing his mind, he's reflecting the truth in one very plausible version of the future. Marketing companies can't wait for AVs. Automakers are happy because they can apply AV controls to gas powered cars. Tech companies are already spending billions on it. Politicians get to talk about "safety".

Most of that is BS, and we know it, but here is the scary part: when was the last time you saw a congressman at a track day? If google, ford, amazon, apple, GM all team up to ram this down the country's throat, we don't have any legislative protection.

[Coloviper]

I totally agree with your perspective on how feasible the AVs are (or aren't). There are so many tech problems that are being minimized in the discussion by tech-optimists. Some of those issues are totally irreconcilable even over the long term.

BUT it is still a threat to our hobby and our passion for Viper (or other fun cars) and we can't ignore it. The generation that is just being born now might never get to drive our Vipers; that's the frightening truth. Bob Lutz is not losing his mind, he's reflecting the truth in one very plausible version of the future. Marketing companies can't wait for AVs. Automakers are happy because they can apply AV controls to gas powered cars. Tech companies are already spending billions on it. Politicians get to talk about "safety".

Most of that is BS, and we know it, but here is the scary part: when was the last time you saw a congressman at a track day? If google, ford, amazon, apple, GM all team up to ram this down the country's throat, we don't have any legislative protection.

I agree the threat is there and growing but it will be localized and car-partmentalized. In Colorado because of the terrain, you can’t even get a solid cell signal and many areas in the mountains, you get nothing (kind of like that at times). There are just way too many variables to be reliable. Come here in a typical snowstorm, when you can not see the stop lights signals (because everything is an LED now and don’t warm the light to remove the snow blanket) or the see the or any of the highway or road painted lines, or when you have to drive outside the lines because the snow ruts in the road are in between lines. The car will just sit there, confused (and be safe) and then the people will die from exposure.

Sorry, black ice, or insane hydroplaning, or fog, dust storm, a sudden animal on the road or deer hitting you on the side where you have to make the decision to either speed up to miss it or slow down to hit it, there is just no programming for that because the variable is a completely unpredictable (it’s an animal).

I have faith in humanity that the rabbit hole will spit us back out or the experiment will come to an end. AV will have its place in certain situations but that might be limited to major roadways and interstates only. The secondary and tertiary paths but especially the nature trails will never have everything because they are not mapped to an inch of their life and never will.

Unfortunately AV will kill a lot of people before the compromise or convergence but good news is it will also save a lot of lives too. In the end, outside of tech, I see a moment to rehimanize taking place right now because it has gone a bit too far. In my sons pre-school, they use technology yah BUT the teachers activively and vehemently promote and encourage actually setting that all aside and doing things with your hands, thought and human experiences. I have not seen this in the schools for a while. A lot of the schools around use are bring back in PE, music, art, on top of the education they had kept for years. Removing the everyone gets a trophy mentality, etc.

Life is like a programmed control loop, it will come into existence, overshoot, undershoot, etc. until it comes to a steady state balance. This is no different. I still think Lutz is off in his comments but that is my opinion.

What does it say when, I have my own company right now that is performing programming and integration in some of the highest technology and latest cutting edge applications in multiple industries including process cyber, etc. and when I think of ideal, it is a small cabin by the lake with none of that tech at all? Why do millionaires all have the expensive toys and everything automated but the trend with billionaires is to have a settlers cabin back on 50 acres with zero tech but period correct appliances, etc? Because humans will be humans in the end. People need to have some faith and not go into analysis paralysis in a what if world. Enjoy life! Anyone I will put my soapbox away now.

[Coloviper]

Re-reading my last post, even stupid autocorrect steps it to make what I wrote confusing with its “changes”. I just see people getting tired of these things. Autocorrect on driving, no thanks. Warnings okay that is good stuff but autocorrect, nope! Life is not perfect, not even human so automation will never meet expectations either.

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Man I hate autocorrect. ������