In the forseeable future: 5 years to get your car off the road or scrap it

[AZTVR]

Re-reading my last post, even stupid autocorrect steps it to make what I wrote confusing with its “changes”. I just see people getting tired of these things. Autocorrect on driving, no thanks. Warnings okay that is good stuff but autocorrect, nope! Life is not perfect, not even human so automation will never meet expectations either.

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Man I hate autocorrect. ������

I thought that you were just demonstrating that no matter how much people dislike computer aids, they will still use them because the result is often better than doing it yourself ! LOL. (I don't have autocorrect enabled on my device.)

[SlateEd]

Re-reading my last post, even stupid autocorrect steps it to make what I wrote confusing with its “changes”. I just see people getting tired of these things. Autocorrect on driving, no thanks. Warnings okay that is good stuff but autocorrect, nope! Life is not perfect, not even human so automation will never meet expectations either.

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Man I hate autocorrect. ������

Cheers to that!

And it's a great point about people retreating to an un-plugged state if they can. I certainly hope that way of thinking comes around to power before it's too late to go back

[Voice of Reason]

So how do you explain away everything on this page:

https://www.tesla.com/autopilot

With these capabilities today you honestly don't think that in 30 years it isn't going to be everywhere and mandated? I'm sorry but you're wearing driving enthusiast blinders if you don't see this is coming to all our futures.

[BrianACR]

Lol Coloviper! Tech is taking over!!
I totally agree with what you say about all the variables. We get the snow, cold, black ice, and all that other wonderful winter stuff here. Last week I was driving in the snow, in the dark, and couldn't see a line on the road. That was on a major 4 lane highway! How is a computer going to know when its driving out of the lane its supposed to be in when it can't 'see' any lines? Much less when the snow is blowing and you can hardly make out the road in front of you. GPS is only good to within a meter or two. Oh, and how does it know that the road is covered in ice and might be extremely slippery. We all know how well electronics work in the cold too. My Ipod doesn't even like to work if I left it in my truck over night at -20C. How is that autonomous car going to work now at those sub zero temps if my Ipod won't??

Autonomous cars may be feasible in a place where your climate doesn't vary from +35C to -40C. But I can't see it working here. Not in my lifetime anyway. Unless maybe that global warming that has been talked about so much actually happens and it warms up to a point we no longer have snow and ice covered roads. So for now I will enjoy the privilege of driving my Viper and contributing to that global warming.

[Voice of Reason]

BrianACR to comment on a few of your points:

- if your eyes can see through it why can’t a multitude of sensors? You weren’t driving using the Force, you were able to tell somehow where the road was and it couldn’t have been from memory (especially memory with better accuracy than a meter or two). Darkness that affects us would be inconsequential to sensors too. The notion that there’s something special about our eyes, that cannot be done with multiple sensors, confuses me. We have sensors at airports that see through clothing, I’m pretty sure we have or can make sensors to see through some falling snow.
- How would a car know a road is iced over? With better accuracy than us by precise monitoring of all four tires and reacting faster than our brains are capable. Snow, ice, and darkness conditions are exactly where advanced 30-years-from-now electronics will shine.
- it’s probably time to upgrade that iPod to an iPhone 4s, modern tech doesn’t freeze up. And in the future your car will be warmed up and waiting well before you need to use it.

I suspect that most people appalled by the idea of a fully self driving society are actually the ones who will need it most in 30 years. You’ll be 70 or 80 or maybe 90, take a look around at drivers in this age bracket the next time you’re out and honestly tell me a self driving Tesla TODAY isn’t right there with them. Over the next 30 years the computer cars are getting better while our hardware is degrading.

[Voice of Reason]

This news article is timely to our discussion.

https://www.npr.org/sections/alltech...backup-drivers

[Coloviper]

Voice of a Reason:

I get what you are saying, I do and understand, but you are in a Pollyanna world. Machine and human must converge for it to work as they want. 30 years, they will be in greater numbers but AV will still be a minority.

You can sensor up all you want, compute up all you want. It is the configured program that is all that matters. Oh and I have 6 of my Automation staff helping build a certain electric car right now. In the end, these are steps forward in auto history but we have a long way to go to hit the Jetson AV future you predict in just 30 years. It is almost laughable that people think the configuration is so easy.

BTW, my iPhone 7 can’t hold a candle to the Nokia from the late 90s for voice and battery life. Great it can do 3000 other things better but I only really need it to do 5 things great without locking up or going through a full battery in 3 hrs after an IOS update.

My company also implements mining AV truck solutions and that is a closed circuit environment. This is not a perfect science. This isn’t Hollywood in the land of fantasy. 30 years is just not a long enough time to perfect to the level you describe. It will take longer.

[Coloviper]

Lastly, if “Skynet Machine World is so great”, why isn’t the world’s largest supercomputer deciding all court case proceedings. Think how efficient that would be. The machine knows all the laws, how to cross reference, etc. it has to be impartial because it is a machine and yet no machines decide these things now or in the near future. Same for doctor procedures.

Sorry but machines will always evolve to help us be more efficient however they will never replace the ultimate human behind the helm. It simply can not handle variables it is not programmed to handle. Even AI Boston Dynamics crazy stuff has its limitations and that is a learning configuration.

Even a 100% close circuit like a light rail or a Hyperloop, will still have a human there in the control, for backup . Ha! Ha!

[SlateEd]

Voice of Reason - I tend to agree with your assessment of the future potential, and that's exactly why I'm so angry about how far this has gotten already... from the article you linked:
"The U.S. Department of Transportation reported that 37,461 people died on U.S. roads in 2016. "Human choices" are "linked to 94 percent of serious crashes," the agency says. Drunken driving, distracted driving, speeding and not wearing a seat belt were each associated with thousands of deaths."

These are all driver behaviors that can be fixed through training. And by the way, they're the during-driving manifestation of bad habits we are allowing our children to develop all the time. Driving is one of the last frontiers where 16 year olds feel at least some responsibility to act with discipline and focus. If we take that away it's surrendering potentially the last 'hilltop' we've got.

Here's a few stats that will hopefully surprise people and make us pause to think about the ROI of soul-less AVs.
The CDC puts together deep analysis on mortality in the US. 2014 is the most recent fully analyzed report. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr65/nvsr65_04.pdf

From CDC Stats here are some data points that should make you say "WTF?"

2014 total deaths due to all motor vehicle accidents (including pedestrians, cyclists hit by cars, occupants, drivers, everybody...) 37,444
2014 total deaths due to unintentional poisoning 42,032
... more people died due to unintentional poisoning...? WTF?

in 1950, there were 24.6 deaths per 100,000 residents attributed to Motor Vehicle Accidents
in 2014, there were 10.8 deaths per 100,000 residents attributed to Motor Vehicle Accidents
cars got safer, tire technology got better, ABS, airbags, etc.etc.... MASSIVE IMPROVEMENT despite a dramatic increase in total number of drivers.


they weren't studying poisoning the same way back in the 50s so the numbers are more recent, and therefore even more stark.

in 1999, there were 6.1 deaths per 100,000 residents attributed to Poisoning
in 2014, there were 14.7 deaths per 100,000 residents attributed to Poisoning

okay, so the rate of fatality by Poisoning has grown more than 100% in only 15 years, and now exceeds the rate of fatality due to motor vehicles.... so why isn't Elon Musk busy inventing an autonomous pill-bottle-cap?


and the stats go on-and-on...
2014 total deaths caused by unintentional falling accidents - 31,959. That's not a joke, and the number is over 33,000 if you include suicide as the reason for falling. That's approaching as many fatalities as motor vehicle accidents. So where's my Autonomous Gutter-Cleaning robot to make sure no one dies from falling ever again?


The safety argument is nonsense. We are obsessed with inventors, and my generation is guilty of trying to replicate Star Wars and The Jetsons in our society. Can AVs potentially save some lives? possibly a few, but that's not possible to prove without a full-scale test and anyone who says otherwise is dreaming.
... Are there less expensive things we could do to save many more lives? Absolutely.