The Future Value Analysis for Viper

[swexlin]

If u wanna look at it buy a poster. Hahaha

That's what I've always said. It's a lot less expensive!

[Bruce H.]

Now fast forward a few years when these first-time buyers compare the "commitment of owning a Viper" to say a C7Z as an example, I'd say most of the Vipers at this time will be sold off thus driving Viper values back down. These first-time Viper owners will sell or trade at any expense to get the; Hellcat, C7Z, Shelby GT or whatever.

Nothing you or others have said would lead to the conclusion of mass sales and the driving down of values by first time buyers who suddenly discover the car isn't to their liking. Not only did the rags publish the great Viper laps times but they also seemed to take great joy in extensively and relentlessly criticising every aspect of the Viper for anything but track use by those desperately wanting the last bit of performance at any cost. I find it hard to believe that anybody bought one without a good idea of what they were buying.

It's just as likely that they already own a daily driving high performance car, and would continue to satisfy that fancy by replacing it for whatever's new and exciting while keeping the Viper as their only unique, old school, hard core, rare and exotic perfomance car.

Sure there will be some that find the Viper not to their liking, and experience buyers remorse the same as is normal for a small percentage of car and truck purchases, and they're unlikely to all wait a "few years" to sell all at once and end up suddenly driving down values.

The turnover I can see are by those who specifically purchased the new top Viper because of its status of becoming the latest or ultimate Viper, and by those who chose it because it became the fastest production car for that particular status.

We saw the first happen when the Gen V was introduced, and both happen when the TA was introduced and set the lap record. Then we saw both again when buyers of the TA were seduced by the improved performance of the ACR in 2016. I'd point out that many of those 2016 ACR buyers were hard core track rats that would actually use and fully appreciate the extra performance of that model, and will likely do so for years as it continues to perform as they wanted.

Some more recent ACR buyers in this thread have said they expected their ACR ownership will be for a limited time and then they'd move on to next unique car as they typically do. They're unlikely to drive it much or track it at all, or barely at all, and in doing so expect it to appeal to the next high end buyer that probably won't really drive it either. I do question what the market for those cars will be as I'd expect those prospective buyers will also be looking for the next great car also, and there could be a lot of these cars on the market for an extended period of time. I also wonder if those who want and can afford a Viper in this price range wouldn't have had ample time and opportunity to buy one already.

But I do expect the market to stay strong for these cars, but it will likely remain a small market as always.

[Policy Limits]

Next unique car lol. There's nine hundred eighteen ...wait for it 918's produced, 40k vettes per year, 3k lambos made per year, 40k porsches, 3k Ferrari, the days of exclusivity are over. Porsche crushed the profit margin with the panamera, cayenne and now everyone wants a piece of that mass produced market. So Maserati and Bentley make Suv's, ferrari makes the FF, lambo has some hideous cross over in the works.

I think the days of exclusivity will die with the viper. Companies want profitability. The exception would be a willingness to drop 7 figs on a hyper car like Pagani, Bugatti and Koenigsegg.

[slowhatch]

Excellent points but assumes that the future Viper buyer is the current Viper buyer, which is unlikely. The current Viper buyer that you have described as cross-shopping C7Z, Hellcat, Shelby GT350 is unfortunately probably stretched a bit to afford the car but wanted to "give it a shot" to see what all of the enthusiasm is about (or to simply check it off the list of "been there, done that"). They have to get rid of the Viper to get the next fun car. So, yes, they may not hold it long (although they should).

The future Viper buyer is not that guy. In fact, the market is already moving away from that guy as the people scrambling right now to pick up limited edition Gen V ACR's are more likely to be well-heeled auto enthusiasts that have multiple fun cars in the garage. These guys can be holders for an extended period and are likely to be because the Gen V ACR to them fills a very limited role -- it is an incredibly special, very rare track car that can hang with anything. These guys will keep it on a rack in their garage until that beautiful Sunday morning comes around and they want to recall the feeling of driving purity. They will drive it once in a blue moon, but will keep it when they realize how special it is (i.e. how people gawk when they see it, how it feels to get into it, how it handles the track).

That is how this car appreciates. However, this is somewhat more applicable to the ACR than the other models.

[Donato]

Just FYI from KBB.com;

"How are the final values determined?
Used values are determined by a proprietary editorial process. This process starts with a thorough analysis of all collected data along with historical trends, current economic conditions, industry developments, seasonality and location. The resulting values reflect the most current representation of a changing marketplace and are therefore relied upon by a variety of leading organizations as well as the average consumer."

[Scott_in_fl]

Next unique car lol. There's nine hundred eighteen ...wait for it 918's produced, 40k vettes per year, 3k lambos made per year, 40k porsches, 3k Ferrari, the days of exclusivity are over. Porsche crushed the profit margin with the panamera, cayenne and now everyone wants a piece of that mass produced market. So Maserati and Bentley make Suv's, ferrari makes the FF, lambo has some hideous cross over in the works.

I think the days of exclusivity will die with the viper. Companies want profitability. The exception would be a willingness to drop 7 figs on a hyper car like Pagani, Bugatti and Koenigsegg.

Yes, low volume, hand built high-performance cars are exceedingly expensive to bring to market. It was just barely possible in 1992 when Dodge took a huge gamble and created a platform that it would squeeze until bone dry over the next 25 years. Ford did it in 05/06 when it was on a sugar high just before the global financial crisis that about bankrupted the company. Those days are gone.

Now, if it is going to be done again, we know how much it will cost.... about $400k if Dodge were able to follow Ford's model for the NFGT. But it can't. Dodge doesn't have the head start that Ford has been working on for several years already (their SVT group has been firing on all cylinders for at least 5-6 years now), and Ferrari isn't going to be sharing much of their assistance. Dodge would be playing catch-up, and by the time it could create and market a new, small batch platform is probably 10 years out.

Regarding the point above about battery powered cars, yes, they will be more efficient, smaller, lighter, and faster at some point. But they will also sound like an RC car with its whirring electric motor, probably be speed regulated, and have traction control this, dynamic control that, efficiency mode (i.e. autonomous mode) during highway driving, etc. They'll probably pipe in the fake sound of some cool F1 sounding engine like in the movie Tron, but it will all be fake... and it will feel fake, even if mind-numbingly fast (again, like the movie Tron). That may be fun for the younger generation and they may appeal to that, but such is yet to be seen.

What we do know is that history is littered with infrequent examples of great automobiles that were unloved during their production years but became extremely cherished once they were gone. We also know that human beings are fascinated by nostalgia and that deep down inside all of us is a curiosity about what it was like to live back in the day. If you're a sailing guy, you would love to get a ride in a vintage sailboat that was the best of its time; if you're a gun guy, you would love to experience what it was like to shoot something from the Civil War; if you're a pilot, you yearn to catch a ride in a P-51D Mustang; and if you're a car guy, 20 years from now, you're going to want to know what it was like to drive the Gen V ACR Viper.

[ViperSmith]

Comparing the 918, which has risen $1m in value since released to the Viper values which have only gone down?

Come on.

[Policy Limits]

So the 918 doubled? So will final edition snakes. It will take much longer to do so but I suspect it's a probability

[ACRSNK]

What is interesting to me is people that haven't even sat in a Gen V ACR commenting on it's future value or place within the collector world. All I can tell you is that I am absolutely amazed that this car even exists. I have owned and own quite a few "collectible" cars and this Viper is something very special. It takes everything I have always liked and admired about high performance American Muscle and wraps it in one of the most jaw dropping packages that is the ACR. What an amazing privilege to own one of these. There have been lots of great American Muscle cars, but nothing quite like the ACR-E. I think this car is way under priced for what you get. With the very small number of these cars built, and the demand being what it is, I wouldn't be surprised at all if we see some appreciation in pricing over the next few years. I'm actually considering buying another before it's too late, or before Gerry Wood and other dealers figure out they are crazy for selling at sticker.

[Policy Limits]

Let's do a group buy for a deal...New England style! Lolz

[ACRSNK]

Let's do a group buy for a deal...New England style! Lolz

I'm down if you are. How many do you think we need to get a deal?

[Policy Limits]

Not sure. Considering the Adrenaline one. This snow has me stir crazy. Hahaha.

[ViperSRT]

It's a values thread. Corvettes lose 50 pennies on the dollar within the first 20 months of ownership. While early gen V's did the same, ACR cars remain hash tag 6 figures and will continue to assuming low miles, proper maintenance.

Gen 1 values were maintained much more than you imply. Also 1996 GTS. Both are still more than 50% of original price now. I sold my Gen 1 when it was over 10 years old for about 70% of purchase price. Can you say the same about Gen 5? Facts are facts and your disdain for early gens is not backed up by facts.

[Policy Limits]

Early gen's are great. You can pick up a nice Gen I for 40k. Tempted.

[ViperSRT]

Early gen's are great. You can pick up a nice Gen I for 40k. Tempted.

And what do you think they sold for new (MSRP)? Hint they were between 50 and 60k depending on year, except 1992 when dealer markups were common.

[Policy Limits]

Like I said "great" and "tempted" do you need a neon sign or a translator?

[Donato]

Regarding the point above about battery powered cars, yes, they will be more efficient, smaller, lighter, and faster at some point. But they will also sound like an RC car with its whirring electric motor, probably be speed regulated, and have traction control this, dynamic control that, efficiency mode (i.e. autonomous mode) during highway driving, etc. They'll probably pipe in the fake sound of some cool F1 sounding engine like in the movie Tron, but it will all be fake... and it will feel fake, even if mind-numbingly fast (again, like the movie Tron). That may be fun for the younger generation and they may appeal to that, but such is yet to be seen.

What we do know is that history is littered with infrequent examples of great automobiles that were unloved during their production years but became extremely cherished once they were gone. We also know that human beings are fascinated by nostalgia and that deep down inside all of us is a curiosity about what it was like to live back in the day. If you're a sailing guy, you would love to get a ride in a vintage sailboat that was the best of its time; if you're a gun guy, you would love to experience what it was like to shoot something from the Civil War; if you're a pilot, you yearn to catch a ride in a P-51D Mustang; and if you're a car guy, 20 years from now, you're going to want to know what it was like to drive the Gen V ACR Viper.

Good examples and I was thinking the exact same thing but had a different conclusion. You really don’t have to look any further than the comments in this Forum for examples based in Viper reality. The Gen 5s guys look down on the Gen 4s and Gen 1, 2, 4, and 5 guys don’t even consider the Gen 3 a real Viper. Let’s be honest, who here driving a Gen 5 would give it up for a Gen 1 to feel like a Viper purest for any more than 5 minutes? Who here would trade their Gen 5 ACR for a Gen 4 ACR to be nostalgic? Who would say I'm really yearning to go around this track slower?

You may be nice to visit but certainly not live there and certainly not pay big $$$ for it, look at all the squabbling back and forth about MSRP and ADM. The only guys I see going backward to older generations and technology are the collectors in the group and those are very few and far between.

On a side note; I compete in USPSA and IDPA 1911 single-stack competitions. I have several high-end single and double-stack 1911s. I even build custom 1911s in my spare time, but I have absolutely no desire to own or shoot a 1911 from 1911, but that's just me.

[Granger73]

Tesla

[Policy Limits]

Don't be so sure to dismiss older snakes. The Gen II GTSR from 20 years ago has held value very well for example, and will be a nice collector car.

[ACRSNK]

Good examples and I was thinking the exact same thing but had a different conclusion. You really don’t have to look any further than the comments in this Forum for examples based in Viper reality. The Gen 5s guys look down on the Gen 4s and Gen 1, 2, 4, and 5 guys don’t even consider the Gen 3 a real Viper. Let’s be honest, who here driving a Gen 5 would give it up for a Gen 1 to feel like a Viper purest for any more than 5 minutes? Who here would trade their Gen 5 ACR for a Gen 4 ACR to be nostalgic? Who would say I'm really yearning to go around this track slower?

You may be nice to visit but certainly not live there and certainly not pay big $$$ for it, look at all the squabbling back and forth about MSRP and ADM. The only guys I see going backward to older generations and technology are the collectors in the group and those are very few and far between.

On a side note; I compete in USPSA and IDPA 1911 single-stack competitions. I have several high-end single and double-stack 1911s. I even build custom 1911s in my spare time, but I have absolutely no desire to own or shoot a 1911 from 1911, but that's just me.

Buy the best car you can find from each GEN...problem solved. I have a Gen I, Gen II and Gen V. Wouldn't mind getting a nice Gen IV ACR. Only one I will never own is a Gen III.

[Donato]

Buy the best car you can find from each GEN...problem solved. I have a Gen I, Gen II and Gen V. Wouldn't mind getting a nice Gen IV ACR. Only one I will never own is a Gen III.

OK, you wouldn't mind getting a nice Gen 4 ACR but would you pay 2, 3, 4 times original MSRP for it?

[slowhatch]

OK, you wouldn't mind getting a nice Gen 4 ACR but would you pay 2, 3, 4 times original MSRP for it?

[ACRSNK]

OK, you wouldn't mind getting a nice Gen 4 ACR but would you pay 2, 3, 4 times original MSRP for it?

It's all relative and by that I mean I wouldn't pay 2, 3, or 4 times original MSRP for a Gen IV right now because I don't have to. Market is not there for those cars right now. I have however paid 2 and 3 times original MSRP on other vehicles I have purchased because that's what they were worth when I bought them. there are a lot of factors that will add to Viper values moving forward. End of production, breed is officially over 25 years old, and some nice rare examples to choose from. I think Vipers are cheap right now, but don't be surprised if that changes abruptly. Soon enough we will only be left with the used car Viper market to choose from.

[Policy Limits]

I think final edition Gen 4 ACR cars will be valuable. Gastman has a black one with plum stripes and no miles as a collection piece. 150 days until the plant closes. A few years after that, the market will stabilize, come back and then some. Plus consumer confidence is through the roof now that the commie is out of D.C. stay tuned.

[GerryWoodViper]

What is interesting to me is people that haven't even sat in a Gen V ACR commenting on it's future value or place within the collector world. All I can tell you is that I am absolutely amazed that this car even exists. I have owned and own quite a few "collectible" cars and this Viper is something very special. It takes everything I have always liked and admired about high performance American Muscle and wraps it in one of the most jaw dropping packages that is the ACR. What an amazing privilege to own one of these. There have been lots of great American Muscle cars, but nothing quite like the ACR-E. I think this car is way under priced for what you get. With the very small number of these cars built, and the demand being what it is, I wouldn't be surprised at all if we see some appreciation in pricing over the next few years. I'm actually considering buying another before it's too late, or before Gerry Wood and other dealers figure out they are crazy for selling at sticker.

What's funny is that we are kinda crazy for selling at MSRP. Demand is suggesting that some individuals will pay more than that for the right car. There are a few dealers out there doing it, asking over MSRP. We took a deposit on an ordered car two weeks ago from a gentleman in CA and he said a dealer out there had a new 2016, and was $20k over sticker. His justification? "It's the last one we'll ever get, so we'll wait for it".

It's a new day in Viperland. It's uncharted territory for many, and that's uncomfortable. In my books, it's a good thing. Never, ever is there a time when downward pressure on new pricing good for resale value. It depreciates a brand, and with that is miserable resale. The Viper is finally getting what it always deserved - demand that exceeds supply and the inevitable support of resale values for those lucky few who get to own one.

BW