The Future Value Analysis for Viper

[Scott_in_fl]

This is a hot topic and surely has been discussed before, but several points have been missed. Now that I have an ACRE on order, I'll share my view as someone with a various relevant backgrounds (namely financial markets, and vintage auto markets).

I'll add to those previous discussions that we can look forward 20 years from now and imagine the last of the great analog cars crossing the auction block (we can look forward because we can look -- that is, we can look at what is happening at Mecum/Barrett-Jackson auctions right now).

I consider analog cars to mean those with naturally aspirated motors, manual transmissions, and little to no electronic aids. Think of cars that rumble and shake when you start them, that smell a bit like unburnt fuel when you stand behind them, that feel raw when you sit inside them, etc. There is no drive-by-wire, fly-by-wire, or any of that other crap. Analog cars are the pure driver's cars, offering the most direct sensation of working a car down the road, or around a track.

The era of analog cars is mostly behind us. The highest performing such cars are the original FordGT, the air cooled and some early generations of water-cooled Porsches (especially CGT, which probably marked the end of an era), and some older manual Ferrari's (prior to 2010 or so), and that might be about it. After that, cars became too refined, too computer-controlled, too electric, and too fake (think 918, P1, LaF, any McLaren).

Some manufacturer's realize the problem and try to mimic some analog qualities into their newer designs. For instance, many now pipe in fake engine sound into the cabin to emulate some of the analog experience. They all have steering settings with a "track mode" to emulate a more direct feel for the road. There are electronic suspension settings, brake setting, throttle/economy settings, etc. Porsche is even trying to go backwards to some degree, by removing some of the newer technology from cars like their 911R and then charging more because they gave you less (just one example of why Porsche is unquestionably the best car MFG at marketing and building the brand).

So where is the Viper in all of this? I think it sits right at the top of the heap. It is literally more than 10-15 seconds per lap faster than any of those other great analog cars. The only real question is whether the Gen V will be considered a genuine analog car, or whether it too has become too computer controlled. I don't have one yet, so I can't be sure. But, the reason why I purchased the ACRE is because everything that I read seems to indicate that it still has that analog feel that I remember from my Gen III coupe (big, rumbling V10, manual trans, burns fuel at a ridiculous rate, sounds obnoxious, etc.). I understand that it has even better steering feel than my Gen III, probably the most beloved aspect of my prior car and critically important to this "analog vs. digital" concept.

When we buy nostalgia, we buy experiences and memories. In 20 years, when the then-current supercars are basically driving themselves, there is going to be little doubt that many, many, many people are going to miss what it feels like to drive the genuine items. If they can take out a Gen 5 Viper ACR on a Sunday morning just to rekindle that feeling, and just to remember what it must have been like to own such a beast, then life will be good.

To loosely quote Kuniskis, this is the really, really last call of an era (and again, it may have already passed to a large degree, we just don't realize it yet -- again, 918, P1, LaF, etc.). Anything that comes from Porsche, Ferrari, Lambo, Audi, McLaren, etc. will still be great but they will be ever more digital. Their cars will be fast (eventually much faster than today), but they can never go back to building what is essentially a large go-cart or a Nascar racer. Those days are done, and have been with all of those makes for some time now (Porsche cannot build a CGT again - Dodge cannot build another Viper on what is currently a modified 25 year-old platform -- seriously, go look at some "how it's made" articles and videos from 1992 and you'll be astonished at how similar the car looks to a Gen V before the body gets attached; it's almost scary from a safety standpoint).

Thus, your Viper will be collectible regardless of which gen you have. Values will go up considerably. The latest, highest performing ones will do best because they are going out on top. Special editions, story cars, etc. will do somewhat better than others within their generation, but probably not enough to worry about. In order to get substantially more money on a special edition you'd have to not drive it. A low mileage 1 of 1 in a good color with the right options, and kept nicely will do just fine. Go try to find vintage P-cars in rare or highly desirable factory colors (black in particular) and you'll see what I mean.

Values will not explode until everyone realizes that all of their options are digital ones and they start hunting for the analog cars. That is happening slowly right now (again, look at P-car values) but it will accelerate in the next 5-10 years as the masses realize it and analog cars are further back in the rearview mirror. There will only ever be hundreds, not thousands, of Gen V ACR's. $500k is not unreasonable within 10 years. Beyond that, you could literally be sitting on an absolute treasure regardless of special edition, 1 of 1, or otherwise. Hold onto your cars and enjoy the ride.

[timberwolf]

This is a hot topic and surely has been discussed before, but several points have been missed. Now that I have an ACRE on order, I'll share my view as someone with a various relevant backgrounds (namely financial markets, and vintage auto markets).

I'll add to those previous discussions that we can look forward 20 years from now and imagine the last of the great analog cars crossing the auction block (we can look forward because we can look -- that is, we can look at what is happening at Mecum/Barrett-Jackson auctions right now).

I consider analog cars to mean those with naturally aspirated motors, manual transmissions, and little to no electronic aids. Think of cars that rumble and shake when you start them, that smell a bit like unburnt fuel when you stand behind them, that feel raw when you sit inside them, etc. There is no drive-by-wire, fly-by-wire, or any of that other crap. Analog cars are the pure driver's cars, offering the most direct sensation of working a car down the road, or around a track.

The era of analog cars is mostly behind us. The highest performing such cars are the original FordGT, the air cooled and some early generations of water-cooled Porsches (especially CGT, which probably marked the end of an era), and some older manual Ferrari's (prior to 2010 or so), and that might be about it. After that, cars became too refined, too computer-controlled, too electric, and too fake (think 918, P1, LaF, any McLaren).

Some manufacturer's realize the problem and try to mimic some analog qualities into their newer designs. For instance, many now pipe in fake engine sound into the cabin to emulate some of the analog experience. They all have steering settings with a "track mode" to emulate a more direct feel for the road. There are electronic suspension settings, brake setting, throttle/economy settings, etc. Porsche is even trying to go backwards to some degree, by removing some of the newer technology from cars like their 911R and then charging more because they gave you less (just one example of why Porsche is unquestionably the best car MFG at marketing and building the brand).

So where is the Viper in all of this? I think it sits right at the top of the heap. It is literally more than 10-15 seconds per lap faster than any of those other great analog cars. The only real question is whether the Gen V will be considered a genuine analog car, or whether it too has become too computer controlled. I don't have one yet, so I can't be sure. But, the reason why I purchased the ACRE is because everything that I read seems to indicate that it still has that analog feel that I remember from my Gen III coupe (big, rumbling V10, manual trans, burns fuel at a ridiculous rate, sounds obnoxious, etc.). I understand that it has even better steering feel than my Gen III, probably the most beloved aspect of my prior car and critically important to this "analog vs. digital" concept.

When we buy nostalgia, we buy experiences and memories. In 20 years, when the then-current supercars are basically driving themselves, there is going to be little doubt that many, many, many people are going to miss what it feels like to drive the genuine items. If they can take out a Gen 5 Viper ACR on a Sunday morning just to rekindle that feeling, and just to remember what it must have been like to own such a beast, then life will be good.

To loosely quote Kuniskis, this is the really, really last call of an era (and again, it may have already passed to a large degree, we just don't realize it yet -- again, 918, P1, LaF, etc.). Anything that comes from Porsche, Ferrari, Lambo, Audi, McLaren, etc. will still be great but they will be ever more digital. Their cars will be fast (eventually much faster than today), but they can never go back to building what is essentially a large go-cart or a Nascar racer. Those days are done, and have been with all of those makes for some time now (Porsche cannot build a CGT again - Dodge cannot build another Viper on what is currently a modified 25 year-old platform -- seriously, go look at some "how it's made" articles and videos from 1992 and you'll be astonished at how similar the car looks to a Gen V before the body gets attached; it's almost scary from a safety standpoint).

Thus, your Viper will be collectible regardless of which gen you have. Values will go up considerably. The latest, highest performing ones will do best because they are going out on top. Special editions, story cars, etc. will do somewhat better than others within their generation, but probably not enough to worry about. In order to get substantially more money on a special edition you'd have to not drive it. A low mileage 1 of 1 in a good color with the right options, and kept nicely will do just fine. Go try to find vintage P-cars in rare or highly desirable factory colors (black in particular) and you'll see what I mean.

Values will not explode until everyone realizes that all of their options are digital ones and they start hunting for the analog cars. That is happening slowly right now (again, look at P-car values) but it will accelerate in the next 5-10 years as the masses realize it and analog cars are further back in the rearview mirror. There will only ever be hundreds, not thousands, of Gen V ACR's. $500k is not unreasonable within 10 years. Beyond that, you could literally be sitting on an absolute treasure regardless of special edition, 1 of 1, or otherwise. Hold onto your cars and enjoy the ride.

Great points. My only worry is that the government commences a ban on combustion engines and human driven vehicles, and our cars become coffee tables. Still an exciting car to just look at!!

[BJG32]

Great points. My only worry is that the government commences a ban on combustion engines and human driven vehicles, and our cars become coffee tables. Still an exciting car to just look at!!

That's why we must keep electing republicans.

On a serious note. I can see them banning manufacturing, but not banning cars that are already made. Kind of like R22 in the refrigeration industry.

I agree with OP's thoughts though. We are at the end of the muscle car era.

[Snorman]

We've been at the end of the muscle car era for 20 years and every year faster and more powerful cars are built.
S.

[ViperJon]

$500k is not unreasonable within 10 years. Beyond that, you could literally be sitting on an absolute treasure regardless of special edition, 1 of 1, or otherwise. Hold onto your cars and enjoy the ride.

I'll have what he's drinking bartender.

[swexlin]

I'll have what he's drinking bartender.

Jon, I was about to post the same thing. Wow. $500K....

[ViperSmith]

$5m each in 3 years. Heard it hear first - look at the FGT!

[Scott_in_fl]

The analog cars, as I've described them, were phasing out during the last 10 years. From 2008-2012, most of the brands phased out their analog cars. Oddly, Viper continued to build an analog car until it was so long in the tooth that it literally could not comply any longer with DOT regs. In fact, consumers stopped buying Viper because it was too analog when everyone else was introducing new tech digital. This low demand lead to the demise of Viper and is why the current iteration of Viper can never return.

Now, during the analog phase out (i.e. the last 10 years), notable analog cars have been slowly increasing in value as collectors see the writing on the wall.

Look at CGT and its valuation run over the last 3 years. Porsche made 1,300 cars. Or FGT, and its recent valuation run over the same period. Ford made 4,000 cars. We can look at any low production analog car, that was the company's last and greatest performing (at the time), and you see the same thing.

If you take the valuation curve on any analog car as I've defined them (GT3RS 4.0, GT2RS Mk1, FGT, basically any high performance last-of-its-kind car before the manufacturer changed over to a digital platform), you'll see that the curve starts out shallow, with appreciation coming at a slow rate until 6-7 years out.

After that, appreciation moves at a more rapid rate for several reasons. Of course, supply diminishes (no more production, cars get wrecked, collectors purchase for storage). But price appreciation also begets more price appreciation as buyers become more desperate to purchase and holders become less willing to sell (consumers all act the opposite of how they should when prices are appreciating (or depreciating) rapidly -- look at equity prices, commodities, housing markets, etc. - they all function the same way).

Sure, there will always be weak hands that will sell as price goes up, but that problem becomes less of an issue when total production is small.

And that is the ticket for the Gen 5 ACR. It is the total production, regardless of edition. There will be approximately 800 cars, ever. Take a guess at how many low mileage good examples you will see for sale in 10 years at any given time. How many will you find for sale in 20 years, at any given time?

We are talking seriously low factory production, for a car that is undisputed as the fastest (by far), most track competent analog car ever produced. Has any analog, street legal car ever been faster??? Take a CGT, FGT or GT2RS Mk1 around Laguna Seca and see how you do.

Another factor is that Pcar and Fcar types are recognizing the Gen V ACR and respect it. That is something new for Viper. They have accepted it, literally into their homes and garages, and it sits right next to P1's, LaF's, and 918's.

Keep in mind also that there is little to no international distribution for this car. Over the next 10-20 years (and beginning much sooner than that), you should see international buyers reaching in to import this unusual and very limited automobile to their home country.

There are so many factors at play here that were never relevant before and they all point to drastically improved valuations for this last of the analog cars.

It is proven that most people cannot see a good investment when it presents itself. I'm just pointing out some facts that have not been appreciated in the previous discussions on this topic.

[Angleiron]

I find it humorous that you think that this will just pertain to the GenV ACR...

[MoparJohn]

I love it
#science

the analog cars, as i've described them, were phasing out during the last 10 years. From 2008-2012, most of the brands phased out their analog cars. Oddly, viper continued to build an analog car until it was so long in the tooth that it literally could not comply any longer with dot regs. In fact, consumers stopped buying viper because it was too analog when everyone else was introducing new tech digital. This low demand lead to the demise of viper and is why the current iteration of viper can never return.

Now, during the analog phase out (i.e. The last 10 years), notable analog cars have been slowly increasing in value as collectors see the writing on the wall.

Look at cgt and its valuation run over the last 3 years. Porsche made 1,300 cars. Or fgt, and its recent valuation run over the same period. Ford made 4,000 cars. We can look at any low production analog car, that was the company's last and greatest performing (at the time), and you see the same thing.

If you take the valuation curve on any analog car as i've defined them (gt3rs 4.0, gt2rs mk1, fgt, basically any high performance last-of-its-kind car before the manufacturer changed over to a digital platform), you'll see that the curve starts out shallow, with appreciation coming at a slow rate until 6-7 years out.

After that, appreciation moves at a more rapid rate for several reasons. Of course, supply diminishes (no more production, cars get wrecked, collectors purchase for storage). But price appreciation also begets more price appreciation as buyers become more desperate to purchase and holders become less willing to sell (consumer all act the opposite of how they should when prices are appreciating (or depreciating) rapidly -- look at equity prices, commodities, housing markets, etc. - they all function the same way).

Sure, there will always be weak hands that will sell as price goes up, but that problem becomes less of an issue when total production is small.

And that is the ticket for the gen 5 acr. It is the total production, regardless of edition. There will be approximately 800 cars, ever. Take a guess at how many low mileage good examples you will see for sale in 10 years at any given time. How many will you find for sale in 20 years, at any given time?

We are talking seriously low factory production, for a car that is undisputed as the fastest (by far), most track competent analog car ever produced. Has any analog, street legal car ever been faster??? Take a cgt, fgt or gt2rs mk1 around laguna seca and see how you do.

Another factor is that pcar and fcar types are recognizing the gen v acr and respect it. That is something new for viper. They have accepted it, literally into their homes and garages, and it sits right next to p1's, laf's, and 918's.

Keep in mind also that there is little to no international distribution for this car. Over the next 10-20 years (and beginning much sooner than that), you should see international buyers reaching in to import this unusual and very limited automobile to their home country.

There are so many factors at play here that were never relevant before and they all point to drastically improved valuations for this last of the analog cars.

It is proven that most people cannot see a good investment when it presents itself. I'm just pointing out some facts that have not been appreciated in the previous discussions on this topic.

[Scott_in_fl]

AngleIron,

If you read it all (and it is a lot), I said that valuations for all Vipers will increase. But, I also discussed Gen V ACR as being the top of the heap for several reasons. Look at P-cars. Air-cooled, manual cars, with low mileage are great across the board. Every gen is doing well. However, the latest, most extreme of those examples are doing the best (think GT2RS, which even though a turbo car, is still considered by collectors to be in this analog category -- as are most of the older turbo Pcars since Porsche was so heavily vested in turbo implements).

And btw, your color combination is terrific! 1 of 1's like yours (green w/ black stripes) are what I was referring to when I stated that there may not be that much of a difference in values between special editions and well done 1 of 1's. I have to think that your build is likely going to fare very well going forward, especially if one of a kind.

[Stealth78]

We've been at the end of the muscle car era for 20 years and every year faster and more powerful cars are built.
S.

Agreed... but it is more like 40 years. Everyone thought horsepower wars were over in the early to mid 70's.... look at us now.

[The_Ruski_Driver]

I feel like values will creep but 500k in 5 years? More like 200k

[Angleiron]

The ACR is the fastest around the track at the moment, and it is a shame that it will be going away. There is a vette with aero on it's way that may make things interesting. For all of you vert haters I thought I would share something that I kinda thought was true...so that should make my vert worth at least $750K someday! :-)

http://www.musclecarclub.com/the-rarest-muscle-cars/

[Voice of Reason]

I'm willing to let my TA go to any of the financial savvy investors in here for a mere $200k. It's not very often you can guarantee a 2.5x return over 5 years so I'm sure the car won't last long at this bottom basement price!

[sadil]

Loll, gasoline engines are not going anywhere for the next 20-30 years. We are bringing turbo charging to all cars first, then will be the rise of hybrids/electric cars, and then maybe hydrogen fuel cell if we can figure it out. Self driving cars will be a long way out too and will depend a lot on infrastructure. The US can't even repair old bridges or build a high speed rail loll. Country-wide autonomous push will take an effort. Not to mention oil and gas lobbyists lol. Good luck. Point is we all will be keeping our Vipers on the road for a long time.

[Scott_in_fl]

I'm willing to let my TA go to any of the financial savvy investors in here for a mere $200k. It's not very often you can guarantee a 2.5x return over 5 years so I'm sure the car won't last long at this bottom basement price!

First of all, we were talking about 10 years and longer.

Second, I may be interested in taking an option on it. If you really think you'll hold onto it for 10 years, and if we could come up with some reasonable terms re: mileage and condition, you might have a future buyer here. PM me if interested.

[viper_eddie]

Loll, gasoline engines are not going anywhere for the next 20-30 years. We are bringing turbo charging to all cars first, then will be the rise of hybrids/electric cars, and then maybe hydrogen fuel cell if we can figure it out. Self driving cars will be a long way out too and will depend a lot on infrastructure. The US can't even repair old bridges or build a high speed rail loll. Country-wide autonomous push will take an effort. Not to mention oil and gas lobbyists lol. Good luck. Point is we all will be keeping our Vipers on the road for a long time.

I realized recently I really don't like turbocharged engines. Honestly they sound like shit compared to N/A. I think supercharged engines sound decent because of the whine (guess mostly Roots/twin screw?) but N/A still takes the cake. There's literally not 1 new car with a turbocharger that I can say I like the engine note of. Not to mention that the turbo comes in handy mostly when driving the EPA cycle, in real world driving if you drive it hard it uses just as much fuel as a larger engine.

I honestly do think in 20-30 years it will be mostly electric and/or self driving cars. 20-30 years is a lot of progress for electronics, just think of personal computers and how far they've come along. The hold up now isn't car technology, it's the electronic and battery related items. Couple that with the fact that younger generations don't really care about driving and more about gadgets and yeah...to me the future isn't that bright as a car enthusiast.

[BJG32]

First of all, we were talking about 10 years and longer.

Second, I may be interested in taking an option on it. If you really think you'll hold onto it for 10 years, and if we could come up with some reasonable terms re: mileage and condition, you might have a future buyer here. PM me if interested.

It's really a shame we can't discuss/debate something without getting sarcastically shit on by every expert in the forum. I appreciate your thoughts and write up. Thanks for taking the time to do it.

[swexlin]

It's really a shame we can't discuss/debate something without getting sarcastically shit on by every expert in the forum. I appreciate your thoughts and write up. Thanks for taking the time to do it.

Ben, I agree, I actually like Scott's writeup, and he makes some good points. I think the $500K comment is what had a few of chuckling. That being said - I hope he's right!

[Scott_in_fl]

We've been at the end of the muscle car era for 20 years and every year faster and more powerful cars are built.
S.

S, as shown in the article linked by AngleIron, the muscle car era was 1964-1974 and ended 40 years ago.

I'm talking about the end of an era where driver skill was necessary to drive fast.

We both had GTR's, which is a perfect example. That car was widely known as a car that anyone could go fast in because there were so many digital controls working the transmission, brakes, steering, power delivery, etc. You point it, you press the go pedal, and you go fast.

Although other makes were implementing pieces of the GTR technology, Nissan was the first to bring it to just about every aspect of driving.

Others have since followed, with computer control for such a large aspect of the driving experience, that anyone can drive them quickly. McLaren is known for this type of technology and even their early MP4-12C was very similar to the GTR in its tech. Their more recent cars only have more of it. The other guys all have it now too (and I remember Ferrari 458 feeling very GTR-like).

The computers are how anyone can jump into a 991 GT3RS and go quickly around a track. The car is doing nearly all of the skill work. Sure, skill can still buy a couple of seconds over someone without the skill, but it is amazing how quickly the new cars can get around with a fairly neophyte driver behind the wheel.

That's all fine and good, but what is going up in value (at least today), are cars that take us back to when driving was pure, unadulterated fun. We like the challenge that it takes to rip off the perfect heel-toe downshift, the drift through the turn, and how we feather the throttle just perfectly on the exit. It's a highly rewarding thing when you get it just right -- as you know.

For the most part, you can't do those things in cars built today. That is the era that I'm referring to. It's gone. Performante this, 750S that, ZR1, 488, you name it -- those cars are new-age, digital cars. They will be fast, they will be fun. But, for me (and you), and many others like us, it will be far more fun to do it the old fashion way. And, again, there must be a bunch of us out there given the movement in pricing on analog cars.

So, 10 years out, which car do you want to rekindle that experience in? Some will pick Ford, others will pick older Ferrari or Porsche 993. I'll pick Gen V ACR (and my hunch is that many others, by then, would like to be able to pick that one too).

[BJG32]

Ben, I agree, I actually like Scott's writeup, and he makes some good points. I think the $500K comment is what had a few of chuckling. That being said - I hope he's right!

If big hp NA engines go away, then he might not be too far off.

[mnc2886]

Scott,

I enjoyed reading your post. I'll say this. Vipers tend to drop 30-40% and just stay there. Gen I's fell a little further than than. The latest trend from my perspective is that Vipers continued to fall in value for about 4-5 years and then level out. I personally believe that the Gen V will simply just hold steady for a few years and while all might go up some in value, the only ones that will jump way up will be the limited edition vehicles. I don't see the 1 of 1's doing that or any other Viper that isn't a numbered car.

[dethred]

The values on Vipers will go up, and will only go up... after I've sold my car.

[ViperJon]

If big hp NA engines go away, then he might not be too far off.

Every year same story, big HP motors are done for. They're going away....this is it....... better grab one now. And then here comes a Hellcat or Demon to prove them wrong. High performance is never going away, it may just be in a different form. And there will be a bazillion leftover manual Vettes, Mustangs and Vipers to fill the void now and ten years from now.